Heat vs. Nuggets: betting trends NBA Finals Game 1

It’s finally here.

it’s miami Avoided the biggest comeback in NBA history and will face denver nuggets in the NBA Finals on Thursday, June 1. The Heat are only the second eighth seed to make the finals since the playoffs expanded to 16 teams in 1984. new York Knickswho lost in five matches San Antonio Spurs, This is Miami’s seventh NBA Finals appearance since its first appearance in 2006, the most appearances of any team in that span.

On the other hand, top-seeded Denver will appear in the Finals for the first time in franchise history – led by two-time MVP Nikola Jokic, The Nuggets are currently at -400 to win the series, which is their second highest chance of winning the Finals in the last 16 seasons.

With all of this in mind, FOX Sports Research has done an in-depth analysis of several historical bets to give you the information you need to place profitable bets during the Finals. Let’s see what the data says for teams against both Spread (ATS) and Straight Up (SU)!

Don’t be surprised if the Heat get covered but the Nuggets win

The Heat are currently down by nine points going into Game 1, a huge spread for a Finals team that has players Boston Celtics And this milwaukee bucks, Since 1991, teams with seven to nine point underdogs in the NBA Finals have been 18–9–1 ATS (66.7%). In Game 1 in particular, seven-to-nine point underdogs have 3-4 ATS (42.9%) in the Finals over the same period – slightly less profitable but still very close to 50 percent.

The Heat are also the third team since 1988 to have made the NBA Finals and been the underdog in every round. houston missiles and the 1999 Knicks. That said, if you want to bet on the outright winner of Game 1, it’s probably Denver. The home team is 21–11 ATS (65.6%) and 25–7 SU (78.1%) in Game 1 of the NBA Finals since 1991.

It is worth noting that the road for the Nuggets has not been particularly difficult. Denver is the fourth team to reach the NBA Finals and has never faced a team with a playoff winning percentage of 55% or higher.

more relaxed teams cover the spread

While we just told you the Heat have a great opportunity to cover the spread, we’d be remiss if we didn’t present data on teams with ample rests. The Nuggets played their final game on May 22, giving them nine days of rest before Game 1. In the past 15 seasons, when a team rested more than a week entered Game 1 of an NBA conference against a team that rested four or fewer days. Final, the more equipped team is 9-4 ATS (69.2%).

Looking at the entire playoffs overall, teams with more than a week’s rest, teams coming off of four or fewer days’ rest, went 24–15 ATS (61.5%) and 28–11 SU (71.8%) since 2005. Gone. 2022. SU went 23-6 (79.3%) during that span, further solidifying our first trend of Nuggets wins.

take the under in game 1

Simply put, the under has historically been in the NBA Finals. Since 1991, Anders has batted in 97 of 176 Finals appearances with four walks (56.4%) over that span. Looking specifically at Game 1, Under has hit 19 of 32 times since 1991 (59.4%). 110. In fact, they are only the third team in NBA history to finish last in points per game during the regular season and reach the NBA Finals.

Erik Spoelstra covers the historic

Much of the talk of the playoffs has been the coaching expertise displayed by Erik Spoelstra. To put this into perspective, “Spo”, as he is more commonly known, has played seven non-draft players this season – the most non-draft players played in a postseason for a team that reached the Finals. player. Created from the 1966–67 season. This year, Spoelstra will face Mike Malone, who has never made the Finals despite leading Denver to the Finals for the first time in franchise history. Below we have explained how SPO has performed under different conditions from a betting perspective.

  • Spoelstra is 141–112 ATS (55.7%) in the regular season as an underdog since the 2015–16 season.
  • Spoelstra is 30–24 ATS (55.6%) in the playoffs as an underdog since the 2015–16 season.
  • Spoelstra is 26-12 ATS (68.4%) as a combined seven-to-nine point underdog in both the playoffs and regular season since the 2015-16 season.
  • Spoelstra is 7-1 ATS (87.5%) and 6-2 SU (75%) since the 2019-2020 season as a seven-to-nine point underdog in the playoffs.
  • Spoelstra is 7-7-1 ATS (50%) in his head coaching career as an underdog in the NBA Finals
  • Spoelstra has achieved 14–14–1 ATS (50%) and 13–16 SU (44.8%) in the NBA Finals over his head coaching career.

Nikola Jokic should dominate, recording a triple-double in Game 1

Perhaps the biggest reason why the Nuggets are such a huge favorite is Nikola Jokic’s absolute dominance. The Serbian Big Man has been on an absolute tear and should continue to defend against Miami. He is currently the -330 favorite to win Finals MVP, but the real value lies in recording a triple-double in Game 1. Most sportsbooks offer him between +100 and +120 to do so, a significant value considering he is an average after all this season. … Know some interesting things about him below.

  • Jokic is averaging a triple-double this season, with 29.9 ppg, 13.3 rpg and 10.3 apg.
  • Jokic recorded four consecutive 20-point triple-doubles at one point in these playoffs, the first player to do so in NBA post-season history.
  • Jokic has six career 30-point triple-doubles in the playoffs, tied for third all-time.
  • Jokic has recorded four career triple-doubles against the Heat and averages 20.2 ppg, 11.1 rpg and 6.3 apg against them in 16 career meetings.
  • Jokic has recorded 14 triple-doubles in his career in the playoffs, third most among players of all time.
  • Jokic has recorded 105 triple-doubles in his career, which ranks sixth among all-time players (regular season).

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