The NFL has slowly become a passing league over the past decade, and one player currently with the Las Vegas Raiders has been the stud of studs at wide receiver in this era.
His name is Davante Adams, and after finishing 2022 with 14 receiving touchdowns, he has a bet for 11 or more receiving touchdowns again in 2023.
The latest odds for this market are over 10.5 at +150 (40 percent implied odds), available on Bet365.
At first glance, that bet doesn’t convey value, but the more you dig into the numbers, the more it looks like an outrageous line.
Adams has been nothing but a touchdown machine in his career, with 43 touchdowns in 47 games over the past three seasons.
Now, most of those catches came on passes from former NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers, and there was thought that Adams could take a step back in 2022 with the Raiders and quarterback Derek Carr.
Well, he quickly put those concerns to rest with a score in his first three games in the Silver and Black and five TDs in his first five games.
Adams finished the season with a career-high 14 touchdowns on 180 targets as a raider.
Adams’ scoring pedigree is clear.
He has finished six of the past seven seasons with double-digit touchdown catches, and his 43 receiving TDs over the past three seasons are the most by any player in the NFL over that span (Tyreek Hill was second with 35 scores).
Most remarkably, he managed to do this with four different starting quarterbacks (Rodgers, Carr, Jordan Love and Jarrett Stidham).
Adams is a player who can explode in any game.
In 2022, he finished with two or more touchdowns in five different games and by Week 10 had 10 scores.
Another factor to consider is how well Adams performed when he moved to the AFC West.
In six games against their new divisional rivals, the former Packer lit up the scoreboard with seven touchdowns and seven touchdowns while averaging 126 receiving yards per game.
Now, the elephant in the room is new Raiders quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo.
Obviously, he is not as talented as Rodgers, but not much bigger than Carr.
The former 49ers and Patriots quarterback came to the NFL with Josh McDaniel as their offensive coordinator, and McDaniel is now the Raiders’ head coach.
With his knowledge of the McDaniels system, it should be an easy transition for Garoppolo to acclimatize himself during training camp and develop a proper rapport with his stud wideout.
Furthermore, Carr wasn’t exactly lighting up the scoreboard in 2022, and Adams still managed to catch 14 of Carr’s 24 TD passes.
The main drawback of betting on NFL futures is the risk of injury.
Any bet can end in only one game.
However, relying on a player like Adams, who ranks second in goals per game while fifth in total red-zone goals, is just as safe.
The only reason for not winning this bet should be injury.
our choice: Davante Adams receiving touchdowns over 10.5 +150 (bet365,