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The person with the worst odds of winning the Home Run Derby on Monday night could have the biggest advantage.

Orioles backstop Adley Rutschmann will enter the contest with little fanfare, having hit only 11 homers entering Friday, but the environment he’ll run in should give him a good chance to make a run at his first Derby crown.

T-Mobile Park in Seattle, which will host All-Star Weekend this year, isn’t actually Hitters Park.

Statcast rated it as the worst overall in the league and the sixth least favorable for home runs.

Seattle has only hit 92 round-trippers this season, which is 21st in the league.

home run derby pick



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On the surface, it doesn’t seem like the right-handed batsman has any significant advantage.

Park is 331 feet to left, 378 feet to left-center, 380 feet to right-center, and 326 feet to right.

According to Statcast, the home run factor for a lefty is 91 — or nine points below average — and it’s 90 for a right-handed hitter.

Things change a bit at night.

In night games played at T-Mobile Park this year, the home run factor has been increased to 98 for right-handed batters and 110 for left-handed batters.

For reference, Coors Field’s home run factor is 108. It appears to be a favorable environment for Ratschmann, the only lefty in the field.


Adele Ratshman
Adele Ratshman
Getty Images

While seven of Rutschmann’s 11 homers have gone to left or left-center, it is likely that he could be a bigger home run threat if he didn’t spray the ball so much.

Ratschmann’s pull rate of 35.1 percent for the year is actually nearly two points below league average, and his opposite-field hit rate is six points above league average.

Ratschmann (20/1, BetMGM) will have no reason to try to go the opposite way during the home run derby, the shortest way out of the park will be down the right field line, and I’m excited to see I know what it is. means for its output.

With a park somewhat suited for left-handed power hitters, I think he clearly has about the five percent chance that the oddsmakers will give him to win this contest.

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While Pete Alonso is once again the favorite (+275) after years of dominance in the event, it’s worth noting that there are actually two players with more expected homers in the field, according to Statcast.

Alonso is fifth in the league with 22.3, Edolis Garcia (+600) is fourth with 22.5 and Luis Robert (+450) is third with 24.3.

Furthermore, while Alonso has hit more fly balls this season, his hard-hit rate is down four points from last year.

The Mets first baseman is a deserved favorite going into the event, but with Rutschmann coming in with a slight advantage and two men in the field with a more expected homer, he certainly could be given a good chance for his crown.

I’ll look elsewhere in this market to find value.

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