MLB PrizePix predictions, player picks: Pete Alonso, Jose Altuve

Welcome back to another PrizePicks MLB Wednesday!

Baseball will take center stage, as the NBA Finals kick off on Thursday.

Let’s dive into some matchups that I think matter a lot.

MLB PrizePix Predictions, Player Picks

Pete Alonso over 6.5 hitter fantasy score

Alonso bought real estate on the island of Aaron Nola and never left. Batsman Vs. Pitcher numbers are usually the only factor I weigh slightly in my process – and only if sample size is important.


Pete Alonso Dominating Lefty For The Mets
Getty Images

It’s usually about hard contact, fly balls, barrels, and pitch mix.

I’m throwing most of that out the window today and putting on my BVP hat.

Alonso is 15-of-45 with five career home runs against Aaron Nola.

Not that Alonso has been in the league since 1990 – five home runs against any one pitcher is quite a tally.



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One start, Nola looks like Cy Young, and during the next, he looks like Justin Carlucci pitching to MLB hitters.

One thing remains constant – Nola gives up hard contact and fly balls when he’s not hitting hitters.

This year Nola has generated a 38% fly ball and 37% hard-hit rate against right-handers, giving way to a .222 ISO.

He has been much better against lefties.

Alonso has a 49% fly-ball rate this season against right-handed pitchers with a .317 ISO.

Kevin Roth’s WeatherAge tool likes this game, giving a 29% boost to potential home runs.

Sign me up.

Eliane Manoah less than 5.0 pitcher strikeouts

Milwaukee has been extremely bad against left-handed pitching this season.

Good news for them – Manoa is right and he could be worse than anyone in the industry could have predicted this season.

The Brewers still have a fairly high collective strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers, but there are three hitters in the projected lineup with strike rates better than 20%.

This may be enough to prevent Manoh from hitting the mark. He’s only striking out 11% (yes, eleven) of right-handed hitters this season.

Manoh’s xFIP is around 7 and he is walking 14% of hitters.

I don’t know what happened to Manoh this season, but we’re only in June, and nothing has changed for the better.

Patrick Corbin less than 4.0 pitcher strikeouts

Corbin certainly holds his own for most of 2023 after being a punching bag for hitters last season.

However, he still isn’t striking out many hitters, sporting just a 14% K rate this season.

The Dodgers lineup has been spectacular against left-handed pitchers this season.

The projected lineup has a collective 21% strikeout rate with an 11% walk rate.

There are plenty of ways for runners to get on base to get Corbin in trouble.

All hitters with exploitable strike rates against left-handed pitchers are projected to hit in the bottom half of the Los Angeles order.


Jose Altuve warming up for the Astros
Jose Altuve warming up for the Astros
Getty Images

Jose Altuve Hitter Fantasy Score Over 7.5

I don’t mind Louis Vereland as a young pitcher, but struggle a bit more against right-handers as a pro.

Vereland is only striking out 20% of them, while achieving a .278 ISO and 48% hard-hit rate this season.

Altuve, a righty at the top of the Houston order, historically hits fastballs well.

In a good sample size over the past three seasons, Altuve has a .346 ISO, 44% hard-hit rate and just an 11% whiff rate.

Vereland throws about 40% of his fastballs to right-handed batters.

Altuve should have a higher chance of being on base with an Astros lineup loaded with right-handed hitters behind him, increasing his chances of getting fantasy points to score.

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