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Blue Jays vs. Dodgers Pick
Michael Grove stepped up for the Los Angeles Dodgers when they needed him most. On Monday night, he will face a strong Toronto Blue Jays team featuring opposing pitcher Jose Berrios.
In July, Berrios has been impressive with a 1.47 ERA and a sub-1.00 WHIP in 18 1/3 innings. His strikeout and walk rates are above average, and his average exit velocity and hard hit rate are favorable as well. Although he has an ERA of 3.39 compared to a 4.59 xERA, his ability to generate below average contact keeps him in check.
Grove, on the other hand, has a 6.40 ERA against a 5.17 xERA. Although some positive regression is expected, both numbers are worrying. He has shown improvement in July with a 3.60 ERA in 15 innings, but his WHIP remains at 1.40. His average exit velocity and hard hit rate are in the bottom half of the league with a below average strikeout rate.
In July, the Dodgers have fared better against right-handed pitchers, but Berrios has the upper hand in this matchup. Los Angeles brings a 143 WRC+ into the game against Toronto’s 108.
Both teams have weaknesses in the bullpen, but their XFIP this month has been comparable in relief.
Given that Grove could be valued higher on the moneyline, betting Toronto at -120 seems like a good option. Berrios can continue to generate weak contact and level the playing field against both lineups.
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