The 2023 Home Run Derby is here! Wladimir Guerrero will take on Mookie Betts in the first round of the junior derby. Below we will continue our MLB odds series as we hand out Vladimir Guerrero Jr.-Mookie Bets predictions and selections. We’ll also tell you how to watch Home Run Derby.
MLB doesn’t have many All-Star celebrations outside of the actual game, but the ones they do are a lot of fun to watch. Home run derby showcases hitters in MLB with distinctive power and lets them knock balls out of the ball park. With the time limit format, hitters take one swing after another with almost no break, so it’s impressive to see him hit more than 30 home runs in four minutes.
Some background on All-Star weekend and the location of the Home Run Derby. T-Mobile Park is home to the Seattle Mariners. Derby weather is going to be absolutely beautiful with a light breeze towards mid field. There haven’t been a lot of runs scored at T-Mobile Park, but that’s largely due to Seattle’s poor hitting and lackluster pitching. He has more home runs than average hits on the field, so this should be a fun home run derby. Right field plays a little shorter than left field, but whatever the case may be, we should see some home runs launched in all parts of the park.
2023 Home Run Derby OddsCourtesy of FanDuel
2023 Home Run Derby Odds
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: -215
Mookie Bets: +172
How to watch Home Run Derby
Stream: ESPN App
Time: 8:00PM ET/5:00PM PT
Why would Wladimir Guerrero Jr. win against Mookie Betts?
To get started, let’s take a look at the numbers. This season, Guerrero has only 13 home runs and one this month. He plays a tough position, but no matter how you slice it, it’s hard to bet on 13 home runs in the Home Run Derby. However, Guerrero had 80 homeruns in 2021 and 2022 combined. While he has potential for power, this season looks to be a bit of a off year for him. Of all Home Run Derby participants, Guerrero has the longest average home run. I would not be surprised to see Guerrero hit 20 or more home runs in the second half of the season.
The reason Guerrero is highly seeded in the Home Run Derby is because of his history in the event. This will be his second time participating, and first time since 2019. However, he was electric in that derby at Progressive Field. Vlad Jr. hit a total of 91 home runs in the Home Run Derby that year and was runner-up to Pete Alonso. He knows what it takes to do well in the derby and his batting power is unmatched. Unless he is too exhausted, Guerrero will win this match.
Why would Mookie Betts win against Vladimir Guerrero Jr.?
Bates is a sneaky participant. This will be his first Derby, but he is a freak athlete. I’m not worried that Bates will get distracted or get so tired in this event. Bates is third in MLB for most home runs this year. He has 26 runs at the break, but doesn’t consider himself a power hitter. Bates’ average home run distance is 396, and it is unlikely that he will reach the 440 mark twice. However, this is not necessary. If Bates can just hit home runs that go 380-390 in left field, he could end up with a nice amount.
Bates has the second-highest number of deliveries at 95 mph or more in the derby this season. The only problem is that Vlad Jr. is number one. Still, if Bates worries about hitting hard line drives over the fence instead of moonlighting, he won’t tire himself out. In turn, this will help him win this match. It’s a long shot, but Bates definitely has a chance to win in the first round.
Final Wladimir Guerrero Jr-Mookie Betts Predictions And Picks
Vlad Jr. is a monster. Betts doesn’t care if he wins or loses, but it should still be a good matchup. However, with the experience in the derby and the ability to earn overtime, I expect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to hit 20 or more home runs in the first round and advance to the next round.
Final Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – Mookie Betts Predictions & Picks: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (-215)