Women’s World Cup Selection, Probabilities

The United States women’s national team will make its 2023 World Cup debut against Vietnam on Friday evening (9 p.m. ET).

Heavy favorites are nothing new for the Women’s World Cup, but it’s still hard not to double-take when you see a 55/1 moneyline price for a soccer match.

Yet, that is what we are dealing with at Eden Park in Auckland, New Zealand.

Finding the value in a match with -20000 favorites requires a little pencil and paper handicapping, but that’s not a bad thing.

Alex Morgan
Getty Images

choose usa vs vietnam

This is the first Women’s World Cup with 32 teams (24 participated in 2019) and while the expanded field should pay dividends in taking the game forward, it has also set up some matches like this one where one team has almost no chance of keeping things close.

In the big picture it’s great that a country like Vietnam is at the World Cup, but things are likely to get worse for the Golden Star Women Warriors on Friday evening.

Stars and Stripes is not only a -20000 favorite on a three-way moneyline, but their curtain-raiser spread is 6 rounds.

megan rapino
megan rapino
Getty Images for USSF

The derivatives markets are also priced very high as Alex Morgan is -800 to score a goal and three other players (Sophia Smith, Lynn Williams and Megan Rapinoe) have scores of -400 or higher.

All of this tells us that goals for the USWNT should be coming fast.

Because this game is in primetime, you’d expect that a lot of people would be looking for a way into the market without shelling out huge prices.

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Most of the money, especially here in the states, will come to Team USA to cover their spread and exceed their team total and that would tax that kind of bet a bit, but I think there is still value in backing the Yankees to make some losses.

Some teams may take a game or two to find their rhythm in the tournament, but this is the ideal matchup for the USWNT to hit the ground running.

I expect the gameplan to be to get a big lead early, which will help them prepare for a big match against the Netherlands on Wednesday night.

Thus, I like shots over 4.5 goals (+340) to be scored in the first half.

Bet: Over 4.5 Goals In 1st Half (+340, FanDuel)

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